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Up You Go…But How Far?

USDJPY rally…hmmm?

The strong rally in USDJPY is primarily a result of first quarter outflow related to reallocation of international investments. Outflows are rumored to be exceptionally high this April, which is supported by the Japanese government pension fund's announcement of their fresh FY04 investments in foreign equities and bonds. First quarter outflow is a seasonal phenomenon, which means that over the medium to long term, Japanese fundamentals will return and USDJPY will resume lower.

 

Move Back Down below 106…hmmm?

 Intervention seems to have ended. For the most part, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan has stopped supporting the “invisible floor” under USDJPY. The best way to describe our point here is in the words of a BoJ source as quoted in the Times of London a few months ago: “the Japanese recovery no longer depends on export strength,” and the central bank can curtail currency interventions, since they have “served their purpose.”

Japanese Fundamentals Continue to Improve

In the fourth quarter of last year, the Japanese economy grew by its fastest pace in over 13 years. Strong capital spending, increasing exports and progress on the disposal of bad loans accounted for the majority of the fourth quarter gains. After 10 years of stagnation, last year’s rebound in Japan’s economy has captured the attention of global investors.
 

Though technicals may at this point still not be supportive of USD/YEN below 106, hence a caution is still needed for trading purposes

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